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The steel market changed little the quotations in many places were only 10 yuan lower

          The steel market changed little today. The quotations in many places were only 10 yuan lower than yesterday. As of the close of trading today, the main contract of Rebar closed at 3,099, down 2 points from the previous trading day. The main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,304, down 1 point from the previous trading day. The main contract of coke closed at 1,619, down 22 points from the previous trading day. The main contract of coking coal closed at 1,084.5, down 12.5 points from the previous trading day. The main contract of iron ore closed at 797, up 1.5 points from the previous trading day. As of 16:00 on the 26th, in terms of finished products, the average spot price of rebar was 3,268 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day. The average price of hot-rolled coils was 3,301 yuan, down 1 yuan from the previous trading day. In terms of raw materials, the price of imported PB powder at Jingtang Port was 815 yuan, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 1,590 yuan, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The ex-factory price of steel billets at the leading steel plant in Qian 'an, Tangshan was 2,980 yuan, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day.

Market analysis

The steel market as a whole slightly declined today, with several steel grades dropping by 10 yuan, but the decline was not significant. By variety, rebar is slightly stronger than hot-rolled coil. The quotations in some markets remain stable and have not declined. Steel futures closed in a narrow range lower in tandem. The main contract for rebar closed at 3,099 points, missing the 3,100 mark, while the main contract for hot-rolled coil was just above the 3,300 mark. Trading volume was lower than yesterday's, the market lacked trading enthusiasm, and market sentiment was rather cautious.

Judging from the market trends over the past two days, the prices of steel varieties such as rebar and hot-rolled coil have undergone certain positive changes. However, they are still affected by the negative expectations of double coke, which has limited the extent of the rebound. At present, there is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals of steel, and the inventory pressure has also been alleviated. There is still some pressure to reduce the inventory of steel plates, but it does not affect the overall seasonal operation rhythm. Therefore, the supply and demand sides do not support a further decline in prices.

Market outlook

Judging from the current market operation, steel has performed relatively steadily among the black varieties, with insufficient driving forces for both ups and downs. However, it is still moderately recovering from the previous decline at the low point in November, and the actual performance of the spot market is better than that of the market. At the end of the month, coinciding with the rotation of the main contracts, due to the lack of conditions for forced liquidation, it is even more difficult for funds to launch a major movement through futures to influence the spot market in the short term. Therefore, setting aside financial factors and returning to fundamental logic, prices are still in a weak balance between supply and demand and are unlikely to perform well, while the macro sentiment will not gradually become clear until early December.

Judging from the market situation, black series commodities saw more declines than gains. Among the main contracts, only iron ore closed slightly higher. Although coking coal and coke rebounded by more than one percentage point from a decline of nearly 3%, they still closed down 1.14% and 1.34% respectively. Rebar and hot-rolled coil saw a slight decline, remaining aimless throughout the day and hovering within a very narrow range. Specifically, the main contract of rebar closed at 3099, down 2 points. The position was 1.2 million lots, with a reduction of 100,000 lots. The position of the rebar contract is 809,000 lots, with an increase of 76,700 lots. At present, the contract is still trading around 3100. The short-term rebound structure still exists. If the spot market stabilizes, there is still room for upward movement. The next resistance point is around 3150.



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