01
The downside space for the futures price of rebar is limited
The recent operating logic of the Rebar market On September 22nd, the press conference of the three ministries of the financial system did not involve short-term policy adjustments, which led to the temporary failure of the strong policy expectations. In early October, the trade conflict between China and the United States escalated temporarily, further intensifying the pessimistic expectations of the market. Meanwhile, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was also significantly lower than expected. During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the inventory of rebar increased by 573,900 tons, with a growth rate of 9.53%, setting a new high in the past five years. Real demand may continue to weaken after November October remains a traditional peak season for demand. As the temperature drops, the construction process in the construction industry may accelerate somewhat, and there is still some room for improvement in actual demand. In the first week after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (October 13th - 17th), the apparent consumption of rebar rose by 642,400 tons compared with the previous week. However, from late October to early November, the demand for construction steel will gradually weaken. Based on historical experience, the apparent demand for 2.4107 million tons of rebar in early October is very likely to be the peak of the fourth quarter. In addition, the relevant data trends of the two major downstream industries of rebar, namely real estate and infrastructure, are also relatively weak. Real estate sales have yet to stabilize. The decline in investment, new starts and construction area continues to expand. The inventory reduction cycle of broad commercial housing remains above 40 months. Although policies are still being continuously strengthened, the main focus is still on reducing inventory, and the actual stimulating effect on the consumption of rebar is limited. Although infrastructure construction may recover under the support of policies, it will not be sufficient to offset the impact brought about by the decline in the real estate industry. Supply in the fourth quarter may be high in the first half and low in the second half Since late August, under the influence of weak demand and high supply, the steel industry chain has been following the logic of profit compression. However, in the second half of September, the profit of long-process rebar fluctuated within the range of 80 to 100 yuan per ton. Therefore, the willingness of steel mills to voluntarily reduce production was not obvious, and the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons. After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, due to the disturbance caused by the iron ore price negotiations, the iron ore price strengthened, further compressing the profits of steel mills. As of October 16th, the profit margin of long-process rebar has narrowed to around 18 yuan per ton, and the proportion of profitable steel mills among the 247 steel mills across the country has dropped from 61% in early September to 55%. Given that the demand level in November and December is insufficient to meet the current high supply, once steel mills enter a loss-making state, the main willingness to cut production will increase. It is expected that the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces may drop to 2.35 million to 2.37 million tons before the end of November. On the other hand, the new "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025-2026)" explicitly mentions that the annual task of reducing crude steel production should continue to be implemented. Based on the data that has been released so far, it is estimated that the decline in crude steel output in the first three quarters will exceed 20 million tons. If the annual production cut is expected to be 3%, there is still some room for reduction. Therefore, during the heating season, it is not ruled out that there will be policy-based production restrictions. Therefore, the supply in the fourth quarter is likely to show a pattern of being high in the first half and low in the second half. The weakening of iron ore prices after mid-October also reflects this market expectation. Based on the above analysis, the rebar market in the fourth quarter will still present a pattern of weak demand and high supply. The logic of compressing industry profits will continue, and the negative feedback of the industrial chain will still exert certain pressure on prices. However, the previous decline in the market price has largely reflected this pessimistic expectation. The high basis may lead traders to choose the market for winter storage. Meanwhile, there is still a series of macro favorable factors to be implemented in November and December. If the expectations can be fulfilled, it will also provide a certain boost to the price of rebar. Therefore, the space for the price of rebar to continue to fall around 3,000 yuan per ton is very limited. However, whether it can rise depends on the implementation of macro driving factors and the recent operation logic of the rebar market On September 22nd, the press conference of the three ministries of the financial system did not involve short-term policy adjustments, which led to the temporary failure of the strong policy expectations. In early October, the trade conflict between China and the United States escalated temporarily, further intensifying the pessimistic expectations of the market. Meanwhile, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was also significantly lower than expected. During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the inventory of rebar increased by 573,900 tons, with a growth rate of 9.53%, setting a new high in the past five years. Real demand may continue to weaken after November October remains a traditional peak season for demand. As the temperature drops, the construction process in the construction industry may accelerate somewhat, and there is still some room for improvement in actual demand. In the first week after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (October 13th - 17th), the apparent consumption of rebar rose by 642,400 tons compared with the previous week. However, from late October to early November, the demand for construction steel will gradually weaken. Based on historical experience, the apparent demand for 2.4107 million tons of rebar in early October is very likely to be the peak of the fourth quarter. In addition, the relevant data trends of the two major downstream industries of rebar, namely real estate and infrastructure, are also relatively weak. Real estate sales have yet to stabilize. The decline in investment, new starts and construction area continues to expand. The inventory reduction cycle of broad commercial housing remains above 40 months. Although policies are still being continuously strengthened, the main focus is still on reducing inventory, and the actual stimulating effect on the consumption of rebar is limited. Although infrastructure construction may recover under the support of policies, it will not be sufficient to offset the impact brought about by the decline in the real estate industry. Supply in the fourth quarter may be high in the first half and low in the second half Since late August, under the influence of weak demand and high supply, the steel industry chain has been following the logic of profit compression. However, in the second half of September, the profit of long-process rebar fluctuated within the range of 80 to 100 yuan per ton. Therefore, the willingness of steel mills to voluntarily reduce production was not obvious, and the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons. After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, due to the disturbance caused by the iron ore price negotiations, the iron ore price strengthened, further compressing the profits of steel mills. As of October 16th, the profit margin of long-process rebar has narrowed to around 18 yuan per ton, and the proportion of profitable steel mills among the 247 steel mills across the country has dropped from 61% in early September to 55%. Given that the demand level in November and December is insufficient to meet the current high supply, once steel mills enter a loss-making state, the main willingness to cut production will increase. It is expected that the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces may drop to 2.35 million to 2.37 million tons before the end of November. On the other hand, the new "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025-2026)" explicitly mentions that the annual task of reducing crude steel production should continue to be implemented. Based on the data that has been released so far, it is estimated that the decline in crude steel output in the first three quarters will exceed 20 million tons. If the annual production cut is expected to be 3%, there is still some room for reduction. Therefore, during the heating season, it is not ruled out that there will be policy-based production restrictions. Therefore, the supply in the fourth quarter is likely to show a pattern of being high in the first half and low in the second half. The weakening of iron ore prices after mid-October also reflects this market expectation. Based on the above analysis, the rebar market in the fourth quarter will still present a pattern of weak demand and high supply. The logic of compressing industry profits will continue, and the negative feedback of the industrial chain will still exert certain pressure on prices. However, the previous decline in the market price has largely reflected this pessimistic expectation. The high basis may lead traders to choose the market for winter storage. Meanwhile, there is still a series of macro favorable factors to be implemented in November and December. If the expectations can be fulfilled, it will also provide a certain boost to the price of rebar. Therefore, the space for the price of rebar to continue to fall around 3,000 yuan per ton is very limited, but whether it can rise depends on the implementation of macro driving factors.
The recent operating logic of the Rebar market
On September 22nd, the press conference of the three ministries of the financial system did not involve short-term policy adjustments, which led to the temporary failure of the strong policy expectations. In early October, the trade conflict between China and the United States escalated temporarily, further intensifying the pessimistic expectations of the market. Meanwhile, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was also significantly lower than expected. During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the inventory of rebar increased by 573,900 tons, with a growth rate of 9.53%, setting a new high in the past five years.
Real demand may continue to weaken after November
October remains a traditional peak season for demand. As the temperature drops, the construction process in the construction industry may accelerate somewhat, and there is still some room for improvement in actual demand. In the first week after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (October 13th - 17th), the apparent consumption of rebar rose by 642,400 tons compared with the previous week. However, from late October to early November, the demand for construction steel will gradually weaken. Based on historical experience, the apparent demand for 2.4107 million tons of rebar in early October is very likely to be the peak of the fourth quarter.
In addition, the relevant data trends of the two major downstream industries of rebar, namely real estate and infrastructure, are also relatively weak. Real estate sales have yet to stabilize. The decline in investment, new starts and construction area continues to expand. The inventory reduction cycle of broad commercial housing remains above 40 months.
Although policies are still being continuously strengthened, the main focus is still on reducing inventory, and the actual stimulating effect on the consumption of rebar is limited. Although infrastructure construction may recover under the support of policies, it will not be sufficient to offset the impact brought about by the decline in the real estate industry.
Supply in the fourth quarter may be high in the first half and low in the second half
Since late August, under the influence of weak demand and high supply, the steel industry chain has been following the logic of profit compression. However, in the second half of September, the profit of long-process rebar fluctuated within the range of 80 to 100 yuan per ton. Therefore, the willingness of steel mills to voluntarily reduce production was not obvious, and the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons.
After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, due to the disturbance caused by the iron ore price negotiations, the iron ore price strengthened, further compressing the profits of steel mills. As of October 16th, the profit margin of long-process rebar has narrowed to around 18 yuan per ton, and the proportion of profitable steel mills among the 247 steel mills across the country has dropped from 61% in early September to 55%. Given that the demand level in November and December is insufficient to meet the current high supply, once steel mills enter a loss-making state, the main willingness to cut production will increase. It is expected that the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces may drop to 2.35 million to 2.37 million tons before the end of November.
On the other hand, the new "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025-2026)" explicitly mentions that the annual task of reducing crude steel production should continue to be implemented. Based on the data that has been released so far, it is estimated that the decline in crude steel output in the first three quarters will exceed 20 million tons. If the annual production cut is expected to be 3%, there is still some room for reduction. Therefore, during the heating season, it is not ruled out that there will be policy-based production restrictions. Therefore, the supply in the fourth quarter is likely to show a pattern of being high in the first half and low in the second half. The weakening of iron ore prices after mid-October also reflects this market expectation.
Based on the above analysis, the rebar market in the fourth quarter will still present a pattern of weak demand and high supply. The logic of compressing industry profits will continue, and the negative feedback of the industrial chain will still exert certain pressure on prices. However, the previous decline in the market price has largely reflected this pessimistic expectation. The high basis may lead traders to choose the market for winter storage. Meanwhile, there is still a series of macro favorable factors to be implemented in November and December. If the expectations can be fulfilled, it will also provide a certain boost to the price of rebar. Therefore, the space for the price of rebar to continue to fall around 3,000 yuan per ton is very limited. However, whether it can rise depends on the implementation of macro driving factors and the recent operation logic of the rebar market
On September 22nd, the press conference of the three ministries of the financial system did not involve short-term policy adjustments, which led to the temporary failure of the strong policy expectations. In early October, the trade conflict between China and the United States escalated temporarily, further intensifying the pessimistic expectations of the market. Meanwhile, the demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was also significantly lower than expected. During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the inventory of rebar increased by 573,900 tons, with a growth rate of 9.53%, setting a new high in the past five years.
Real demand may continue to weaken after November
October remains a traditional peak season for demand. As the temperature drops, the construction process in the construction industry may accelerate somewhat, and there is still some room for improvement in actual demand. In the first week after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (October 13th - 17th), the apparent consumption of rebar rose by 642,400 tons compared with the previous week. However, from late October to early November, the demand for construction steel will gradually weaken. Based on historical experience, the apparent demand for 2.4107 million tons of rebar in early October is very likely to be the peak of the fourth quarter.
In addition, the relevant data trends of the two major downstream industries of rebar, namely real estate and infrastructure, are also relatively weak. Real estate sales have yet to stabilize. The decline in investment, new starts and construction area continues to expand. The inventory reduction cycle of broad commercial housing remains above 40 months.
Although policies are still being continuously strengthened, the main focus is still on reducing inventory, and the actual stimulating effect on the consumption of rebar is limited. Although infrastructure construction may recover under the support of policies, it will not be sufficient to offset the impact brought about by the decline in the real estate industry.
Supply in the fourth quarter may be high in the first half and low in the second half
Since late August, under the influence of weak demand and high supply, the steel industry chain has been following the logic of profit compression. However, in the second half of September, the profit of long-process rebar fluctuated within the range of 80 to 100 yuan per ton. Therefore, the willingness of steel mills to voluntarily reduce production was not obvious, and the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces remained above 2.4 million tons.
After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, due to the disturbance caused by the iron ore price negotiations, the iron ore price strengthened, further compressing the profits of steel mills. As of October 16th, the profit margin of long-process rebar has narrowed to around 18 yuan per ton, and the proportion of profitable steel mills among the 247 steel mills across the country has dropped from 61% in early September to 55%. Given that the demand level in November and December is insufficient to meet the current high supply, once steel mills enter a loss-making state, the main willingness to cut production will increase. It is expected that the average daily output of molten iron from blast furnaces may drop to 2.35 million to 2.37 million tons before the end of November.
On the other hand, the new "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025-2026)" explicitly mentions that the annual task of reducing crude steel production should continue to be implemented. Based on the data that has been released so far, it is estimated that the decline in crude steel output in the first three quarters will exceed 20 million tons. If the annual production cut is expected to be 3%, there is still some room for reduction. Therefore, during the heating season, it is not ruled out that there will be policy-based production restrictions. Therefore, the supply in the fourth quarter is likely to show a pattern of being high in the first half and low in the second half. The weakening of iron ore prices after mid-October also reflects this market expectation.
Based on the above analysis, the rebar market in the fourth quarter will still present a pattern of weak demand and high supply. The logic of compressing industry profits will continue, and the negative feedback of the industrial chain will still exert certain pressure on prices. However, the previous decline in the market price has largely reflected this pessimistic expectation. The high basis may lead traders to choose the market for winter storage. Meanwhile, there is still a series of macro favorable factors to be implemented in November and December. If the expectations can be fulfilled, it will also provide a certain boost to the price of rebar. Therefore, the space for the price of rebar to continue to fall around 3,000 yuan per ton is very limited, but whether it can rise depends on the implementation of macro driving factors.
