Adjustment of China's Photovoltaic Export Tax Rebate Policy Forces Industry to Enter a New Stage of High-Quality and High-Technology Development
Since the start of 2026, solar industry chain prices have entered a phase of complex market game. Driven by factors like exporttax rebate policy adjustments, changes in industry self-regulation, and restructured supply-demand dynamics, prices show a differentiated trend—volatility intensifies in the upstream while the downstream follows up cautiously. In the short term, prices will remain range-bound, and a rational recovery is expected in the long run with industrial capacity optimization and demand rebound.
The core contradiction of current prices lies in the upstream raw material sector. A supply-demand mismatch—overcapacity alongside insufficient operating rates—leads to price fluctuations. Some enterprises limit production to cover costs, temporarily pushing up prices, while loosened self-regulation triggers concerns about unstable price control.
Midstream manufacturing sees structural differentiation. Upstream cost pressures pass through to silicon wafers, with manufacturers eager to maintain prices. The cell sector faces cost strains and has started moderate production cuts to ease supply-demand tensions. Module prices adjust cautiously; though affected by cost factors, price transmission is hindered by off-season end-demand, keeping overall prices low and volatile.
Policy is a key short-term variable. The cancellation of solar export tax rebates spurs short-term order locking by overseas buyers, tightening supply in some links and supporting slight module price gains. In the long run, it will curb low-price competition and drive export prices back to a rational level, shifting price drivers to industrial competitiveness.
Looking ahead, short-term volatility persists amid the off-season and policy transition. Medium to long term, global energy transition underpins demand growth in emerging markets. With inefficient capacity eliminated, prices will recover to a rational profit range. Enterprises must focus on technological upgrading and cost control to gain an edge.
